Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments July 2003 erstellt
Beschreibung:
This paper studies the association between the market's expectations of Saddam Hussein's fall from power, as reflected in quot;Saddam contractquot; prices, and stock prices, oil prices and exchange rates. During the war, a rise in the probability of Saddam's fall, which also indicated a speedy end to the war, was positively and significantly associated with stock prices, strengthened the dollar against the Euro, and lowered oil prices. Before the war, a rise in the probability of Saddam's fall, which may also have indicated the probability of a costly war breaking out, lowered stock prices, which adjusted gradually to this information