Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 20, 2006 erstellt
Beschreibung:
In the context of coin tossing, the local representativeness effect gives rise to alternation bias, whereby negatively autocorrelated sequences are perceived as maximally random and the runs characteristic of unbiased memoryless Bernoulli processes are perceived as being excessively regular to be random. Thus as a consequence of the local representativeness effect, a negative subjective autocorrelation is associated with tosses of fair, memoryless coins. Given this negative subjective autocorrelation, the expected value of the St. Petersburg prospect is finite. Moreover, this expected value falls within the empirically-determined range of what people are typically willing to pay for the St. Petersburg gamble