Aguilar, Pablo
[VerfasserIn]
;
Ghirelli, Corinna
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Pacce, Matias
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Urtasun, Alberto
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]
Can News Help Measure Economic Sentiment? An Application in COVID-19 Times
Erschienen in:Banco de Espana Working Paper ; No. 2027
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (29 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3673825
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments August 14, 2020 erstellt
Beschreibung:
We construct a new newspaper-based sentiment indicator for Spain that allows us to monitor Spanish economic activity in real-time. As opposed to the traditional survey-based confidence indicators that are released at the end of the month, our indicator can be constructed on a daily basis and updated in real-time. We compare our proposed index with the popular Economic Sentiment Indicator of the European Commission, and we show that ours performs significantly better in nowcasting the Spanish GDP. In addition, our indicator proves to be helpful in order to predict the current COVID-19 recession from an earlier date. All in all, our indicator performs similarly to or even outperforms other soft indicators, with the advantage of being updated daily. Thus, it provides a valuable option when measuring the confidence in the economy