Erschienen in:Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper ; No. 2216 (2019)
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (56 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3509251
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments December 24, 2019 erstellt
Beschreibung:
Beliefs are intuitive if they rely on associative memory, which can be described as a network of associations between events. A belief-theoretic characterization of the model is provided, its uniqueness properties are established, and the intersection with the Bayesian model is characterized. The formation of intuitive beliefs is modelled after machine learning, whereby the network is shaped by past experience via minimization of the difference from an objective probability distribution. The model is shown to accommodate correlation misperception, the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect/conservatism, etc