Erschienen in:Banque de France Working Paper ; No. July 2018, WP #725
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (36 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3441659
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments 2019 erstellt
Beschreibung:
I construct a novel measure of policy preferences of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as perceived in public. This measure is based on newspaper and financial media coverage of 130 FOMC members serving during 1960-2015. Narratives reveal that about 70 percent of these FOMC members are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are perceived as swingers, switching between types, or remained an unknown quantity to markets. Hawk and Dove perceptions capture "true" tendencies as expressed in preferred rates, forecasts and dissents of these FOMC members well. At the FOMC level the composition of hawks and doves varies significantly, featuring slow- and fast-switching hawkish and dovish regimes, due to the rotation of voting rights each year, members' turnover and swings in preferences