Goy, Gavin
[Verfasser:in]
;
Hommes, Cars H.
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Mavromatis, Kostas
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]
Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility under Heterogeneous Beliefs
Erschienen in:De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper ; No. 614
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (56 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3296214
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments December 4, 2018 erstellt
Beschreibung:
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of central bank forward guidance when central bank credibility is endogenous. In particular, we take a stylized New Keynesian model with an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint on nominal interest rates and heterogeneous and boundedly rational households. The central bank uses a bivariate VAR to forecast, not taking into account the time-variation in the distribution of aggregate expectations. In this framework, we extend the central bank's toolkit to allow for the publication of its own forecasts (Delphic guidance) and the commitment to a future path of the nominal interest rate (Odyssean guidance). We find that both Delphic and Odyssean forward guidance increase the likelihood of recovery from a liquidity trap. Even though Odyssean guidance alone appears more powerful, we find it to increase ex post macroeconomic volatility and thus reduce welfare