Rannenberg, Ansgar
[VerfasserIn]
;
Schoder, Christian
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Stráský, Jan
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]
The Macroeconomic Effects of the Euro Area's Fiscal Consolidation 2011-2013
: A Simulation-Based Approach
Erschienen in:Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Paper 03/RT/2015
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (35 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3033744
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments August 2015 erstellt
Beschreibung:
We simulate the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation between 2011 and 2013 by employing two DSGE models used by the ECB and the European Commission, respectively. The cumulative multiplier amounts to 0.7 and 1.0 in the baseline, but increases to 1.3 with a reasonably calibrated financial accelerator and a crisis-related increase of the share of liquidity constrained households. In the latter scenario, fiscal consolidation would be largely responsible for the decline in the output gap from 2011-2013. Postponing the fiscal consolidation to a period of unconstrained monetary policy (until after the economic recovery) would have avoided most of these losses