On the Predictability of Growth

Medientyp: E-Book

Titel: On the Predictability of Growth

Beteiligte: Cristelli, Matthieu Claudio Ascagne [VerfasserIn]; Tacchella, Andrea [Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]; Cader, Masud Z. [Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]; Roster, Kirstin Ingrid [Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]; Pietronero, Luciano [Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]

Erschienen: [S.l.]: SSRN, [2017]

Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (48 p)

Sprache: Englisch

Entstehung:

Anmerkungen: Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments June 26, 2017 erstellt

Beschreibung: A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries. This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification

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