Erschienen in:Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper Series ; No. 332
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (48 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.2914186
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments November 2016 erstellt
Beschreibung:
This paper analyzes the interaction between oil prices and macroeconomic outcomes by incorporating oil as an input in production alongside a precautionary motive for holding oil in a real-business-cycle model. The driving forces are factor-specific technology shocks and supply shocks that can be imprecisely forecasted by noisy news shock. These shocks explain most of the U.S. business cycle as well as the empirical distribution of oil prices. Oil shocks are mainly driven by increasing precautionary/smoothing demand, but supply shocks contribute substantially to both the oil-price volatility and the magnitude of oil shocks mainly through their effect on oil reserves