Erschienen in:Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper ; No. 15/2016
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (31 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.2784182
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments May 24, 2016 erstellt
Beschreibung:
This study examines aggregated short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. The focus of the study is on heterogeneity of expectations and changing panel composition. First, we compare two sub-groups of survey respondents divided on the basis of forecast accuracy. Then, we examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters. Finally, we assess the relevance of aggregated forecast revisions in the unbalanced panel by constructing alternative forecast revisions based on the set of sub-panels of fixed composition. The results show that, because of heterogeneity across individual views, aggregated inflation expectations in the ECB SPF must be analysed also on a micro level