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Medientyp:
E-Book
Titel:
Effects of Structural Oil Shocks on Output, Exchange Rate, and Inflation in the BRICS Countries
:
A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach (SVAR)
Anmerkungen:
In: Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(6): 1129-1140
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments 2015 erstellt
Beschreibung:
In this study, we apply a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, combining the global crude oil market with each emerging economy, to investigate the effects of different types of oil shocks on industrial outputs, real exchange rates, and consumer price levels in each of the BRICS countries. The empirical results show that an oil supply shock has significant effects on Russia, while other countries are mainly influenced by an aggregate demand shock. Moreover, an oil-specific demand shock caused by expectation shifts or speculative activities is likely to induce a stagflation risk for China and India. However, these harmful effects are relatively delayed due to oil subsidies or price regulation measures