Erschienen in:CESifo Working Paper Series ; No. 5677
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (28 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.2727113
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments December 23, 2015 erstellt
Beschreibung:
Against the backdrop of the Greek three-act tragedy, we present a theoretical framework for studying Greece's recent debt and currency crisis. The model is built on two essential blocks: first, erratic macroeconomic policymaking in Greece is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments' responses to uncertain macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model's mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area or, conversely, the avoidance of Greece's default against its creditors. The model also offers useful guidance to understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Syiza government and the euro area governments