Armstrong, Alex
[Verfasser:in]
;
Draper, Nick
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Nibbelink, André
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft];
Westerhout, Ed
[Sonstige Person, Familie und Körperschaft]
Anmerkungen:
In: ENEPRI Research Reports No. 20
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments August 21, 2006 erstellt
Beschreibung:
It is well known by now that population ageing threatens the sustainability of fiscal policies in many countries. Although a number of policy options are available to address the problem, the uncertainty surrounding the future development of the population complicates matters.This paper analyses the economic, intergenerational and welfare effects of several alternative taxation policies that can be used to close the fiscal sustainability gap: immediate tax smoothing, delayed tax smoothing and balanced budget policies. A distinction is made between a consumption tax and a labor income tax. In addition, the influence of demographic uncertainty on the results of these policies is analyzed from a number of perspectives. Simulated population shocks show the effect of demographic volatility on macroeconomic and fiscal variables. Stochastic simulations are presented to produce probabilistic bounds for the future development of the economic outcomes and to analyze the issue of optimal fiscal policy under uncertainty