Erschienen in:Higher School of Economics Research Paper ; No. WP BRP 241/EC/2020
Umfang:
1 Online-Ressource (57 p)
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2139/ssrn.3764393
Identifikator:
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments December 31, 2020 erstellt
Beschreibung:
We examine 994 estimates of the effects of IMF programs on economic growth as reported by 36 studies. The mean reported effect is positive, but the estimates vary widely. We use meta-regression analysis to disentangle sources of this variation, addressing model uncertainty with Bayesian Model Averaging and LASSO. We find that estimates vary systematically depending on data and methods employed by the researchers. Reported effects of IMF programs tend to be more positive for samples that include countries with high levels of institutional and economic development, when measured on longer horizons, estimated using more recent data or obtainedwith the propensity score matching technique. Estimates appear to depend on the types of IMF programs being considered, as general resource programs tend to result in less favorable growth outcomes compared to programs that lend from concessional resources. Authors with IMF affiliation tend to report estimates that are somewhat higher than those of outside researchers