Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments April 13, 2022 erstellt
Beschreibung:
This study provides theoretical conditions for a stable political system. The model explains the recent trend in international politics towards a return to authoritarianism.While the formal model by Meller (2012) and others divided political regimes into three categories - closed authoritarianism, electoral authoritarianism and democracy - and rulers made their choices, this study considers that there is an initial political regime based on path dependency. The features of this study's model include the inclusion of the military as a player, the fact that the state only has less than the minimum resources to guarantee a stable life in reality after resources are distributed among citizens, which affects the political system, the inclusion of military regimes, and the inclusion of electoral authoritarianism as a presidential system (including one-party dictatorship) and parliamentary cabinet The two main features of the political system are: the division of the system into two parts; and changes in the political system according to the magnitude of policy compromises. This study has the trade-off that military support for the rulers simultaneously encourages military build-up, resulting in closed authoritarianism, electoral authoritarianism and stabilising military regimes, while at the same time giving the military a stronger voice, which is a cost for the rulers. Democracies that are not aligned with the military are shown to be unstable. Furthermore, the process of winning a coup by citizens increases the probability of success of the coup, as citizens work with the military. However, after a new democratic government is formed, the military's voice is strengthened, meaning that the policies of the non-military coup victors are not always realised. This explains why democracy is a political system that is difficult to sustain. The ruler strikes a balance by making policy compromises with both the military and the public. Closed authoritarianism is threatened by coups due to lack of information, and full democracy is fragile. Democracy cannot be sustained if it is achieved through a coup d'état but with the support of the military. Despite the assumption of a path-dependent model, electoral authoritarianism is a stable system in countries where the initial political system is strengthened, but where the balance between citizens and the military is struck and the amount of real resources is not sufficient for the number of resources demanded by the citizens. The model is consistent with the findings of many empirical studies, including the introduction of elections by authoritarian states due to resource endowments and uncertain information, and reflects the political regimes and political economy environments of diverse states