Beschreibung:
This study aims to examine the climate change’s effects on the Mississippi lake thermal structure and dissolved oxygen (DO) for baseline (1986-2005) and future (2081-2100) periods. Future meteorological variables are derived from the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Water quantity components are assessed using the Thornthwaite monthly water balance model (TMWB) accompanied by an Artificial Neural Network method. Water quality is also analyzed using a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model in 2017 and 2018. The baseline average surface water temperature of 14.6°C would increase by 9.0%, 9.2%, and 18.4% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Analogously the baseline average hypolimnetic DO of 7.1mg/L would decrease by 1.4%, 6.2%, and 14.3% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. A rise in water temperature and subsequent diminish in DO under future scenarios, especially in late summer, would threaten the sustainability of warm-water fish species in the hypolimnion