Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments July 16, 2022 erstellt
Beschreibung:
While a deep body of research assesses the impact of natural disasters on residential real estate prices, a scholarly consensus has not yet been reached regarding natural disasters' impact on housing values in local housing markets. On the one hand, neighborhoods damaged by disasters experience a housing market recession due to the potential risk of another natural hazard in the future. On the other hand, local housing markets experience market inflation after natural disasters due to the reduced supply creating a shortage of housing despite simultaneous, but less extreme, reductions in demand. In this regard, this study focuses on Hurricane Sandy's impact on housing values in New York City and explores spatiotemporally varying hurricane impacts on local housing markets. Using publicly available data provided by the City of New York, we employ two models-an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression that measures average effects across each group of zip codes and a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to account for spatial autocorrelation and is designed to detect more localized housing price differences.Both global and local models suggest significant heterogeneity in the recovery of property values depending upon geographic location. Neighborhoods facing Manhattan and the East River that were subject to Sandy’s storm surge experienced property value increases well in excess of nearby neighborhoods in the near-surged and not-surged categories. In contrast, Atlantic ocean-facing neighborhoods in Southern Brooklyn and Queens in the not-surged category increased in value at significantly higher levels than surged or near-surged neighborhoods in the years following the storm. These results suggest that aggregate findings from past studies of storm-driven property value changes may mask significant heterogeneity in value recovery across properties and neighborhoods in different sections of impacted cities