Alipour, Jean-Victor
[Verfasser:in];
Falck, Oliver
[Verfasser:in];
Krause, Simon
[Verfasser:in];
Krolage, Carla
[Verfasser:in];
Wichert, Sebastian
[Verfasser:in]
The future of work and consumption in cities after the pandemic
Beschreibung:
We estimate the impact of Covid-induced working from home (WFH) on offline consumer spending in urban agglomerations. Our analysis draws on postcode-level data on card transactions and WFH patterns in major German cities between January 2019 and May 2022. We address endogeneity in WFH uptake by estimating intention-to-treat effects based on "untapped WFH potential", i.e. the share of employees with a teleworkable job who did not WFH pre-pandemic. This measure approximates the local scope to expand WFH and explains both observed WFH growth during the pandemic as well as prospective employer plans and employee desires. Difference-in-differences estimates show that local spending increases by 2-3 percent per standard deviation higher untapped WFH potential. The effects are only significant in non-lockdown periods and after Covid restrictions are permanently lifted. Null effects during lockdowns are consistent with temporary shifts toward online spending when business closures preclude regional relocation of offline consumption.