Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments January 1, 2013 erstellt
Beschreibung:
The objective of this paper is to provide a short-term forecast for the economic crisis in the EU. Most economic forecasts are forecasts for economic growth; forecasts for economic crisis are not common in the field. By using the Carrying Capacity Function from population studies as the basis for the predictive function, the point at which the economy may fall into economic crisis may be predicted. The Laplace Rule of Succession to generate the Bayesian prior. John F. Muth’s equation for endogenous shock was also used to calculate economic shock for the EU in order to obtain a comparative study. This paper fills that gap. The data used in this paper is derived from the World Economic Outlook Report of the IMF FY 2012. From this data base, two cases are used for the study, namely the EU and the ASEAN. T the end, there are three forecast numbers: IMF annual forecast, forecast under Muth’s endogenous shock, and the forecast number obtained through calculation method of this paper. Among these three forecast, to forecast points to economic crisis in 2013. The probability for this likely crisis was calculated. Under the Laplace Rule of Success and the Binomial Probability Distribution Density, the prospect of each forecast was calculated. The IMF’s forecast for a growth of 0.929 in 2013 has 21% prospect; forecast under Muth’s endogenous shock equation yields 22% prospect; and the forecast by the carrying Capacity Function yields 67% prospect. Under Rosenthal’s Determinants of Inferential Error grid, it was confirmed that holding the significance level at, neither Type I nor Type II error was evident (Rosenthal, 1984). The Effect Size was moderate showing (Cohen, 1988, and Friedman, 1968)