Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments October 24, 2022 erstellt
Beschreibung:
Both US and Chinese economic welfare are worsening due to the ratcheting up of the geo-strategic competition between them, and the technological competition between them. The forthcoming economic damage can be prevented as long as, one, neither country believes that its national security is guaranteed only when it has military dominance over the other country, and, two, each country deems its national security safeguarded when there is only minimal probability that the other side can undertake a successful first attack that ensures victory. A vicious cycle is operating in US–China relations because of the interaction amongst three types of competition -- economic, technological, and geostrategic – and it can be stopped by instituting arrangements that segment these three kinds of competition. Geo-strategic competition would be segmented from economic and technological competition when countries seek national security through direct negotiations on arms control (e.g. the amount and type of missiles and their location from one another’s borders) rather than through limiting exports of high-tech microchips to the other country. The segmentation of technological competition and economic competition requires prior recognition that every country implements industrial policies to create higher value-added industries, e.g. Biden’s 2022 Chips and Science Act. The large trading nations can achieve the separation of technological and economic competition by adopting a global framework that governs the practice of industrial policies covering issues (e.g. the maximum size and duration of state support to any domestic industry). WTO should expand its remit to include “no unfair industrial policy practices” to its “no unfair trade practices” guardianship duties. Trust is required for a durable US-China agreement on segmenting these three spheres, and trust, in turn, is more easily given when it is undergirded by mutual benefit. The rest of the Pacific Rim community can build this trust by working to strengthen US–China cooperation on the supply of global public goods (like fighting climate change and mobilizing development assistance) that would accelerate achievement of the 17 SDGs and the 1.5oC target. Successful US–China cooperation based on the United Nations’ SDG framework would build the trust needed for good-faith adherence to sensible rules partitioning economic, technological and geostrategic competition