Anmerkungen:
Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments August 14, 2023 erstellt
Beschreibung:
We extend beyond conventional mean-to-mean effects to examine how fundamental variables impact the entire distribution of electricity spot prices in the Australian National Electricity Market. Employing quantile regression models, we demonstrate that variable renewable energy (VRE) generation effectively lowers spot prices at lower quantiles when electricity is relatively inexpensive. However, its role in reducing prices is marginal or negligible at higher quantiles when electricity becomes more costly. High gas prices persist as a significant market challenge, with marginal increases causing price surges at the tails of the price distribution. We provide a detailed analysis of the 2022 energy crisis, demonstrating the limited capability of VRE and interconnectors to counteract the influence of high gas and coal prices as well as price opportunistic hydro generators. The findings underscore the need for policies promoting further renewable energy adoption, a reassessment of the role of gas generation, and strategies to enhance energy market resilience