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Medientyp:
E-Book
Titel:
Development of a Framework to Forecast the Urban Residential Building Co2 Emission Trend and Reduction Potential to 2060
:
A Case Study of Jiangxi Province, China
Beschreibung:
Understanding the future trajectory of urban residential building carbon emissions and the CO2 abatement potential is essential to accomplish the urban carbon neutrality target. In this study, a new framework that includes four building stages under a system dynamic model is developed to simulate urban residential building carbon emission changes and the related reduction potentials under three scenarios in Jiangxi Province up to 2060. Results showed that the overall process carbon emission dynamic have already peaked in approximately 2014 under the three scenarios, with a peak value of 38.52 Mt. It then fell to 9.56 Mt in 2060 under the baseline (BAU) scenario. With regard to the building operation stage, the carbon emission trends largely varied under the different scenarios, and the BAU scenario witnessed a carbon emission peak at 13.40 Mt in 2030. More importantly, seven carbon abatement measures were adopted during four building activities in this study, and the total carbon reduction was not the sum of the carbon reduction potential of the individual measures. Some carbon abatement strategies displayed synergistic effects such as low-carbon electrification where the combination of electrification and clean energy power generation was the largest contributor to reduced carbon emissions during building operation as a comprehensive carbon reduction measure. By contrast, extending a building’s lifetime restrained the carbon abatement potential during the demolition stage, and it inhibited the carbon emission reduction by 24.84 Mt. These results highlight the significant need for effective policy interventions for clean production and the need to improve prefabricated building proportions, promote electrification, improve energy efficiency, strengthen recycling practices, and extend building lifetimes to promote decarbonization of urban residential building system development