Beschreibung:
We use the synthetic control method to analyze the impact of the transfer of administrative works on public welfare expenses, using the transition from an ordinary city to a core city, which is one of the designated statuses under the metropolitan system in Japan. Our results suggest that the amount of the expense does not necessarily increase after the transition and that the range of increase varies. The results showed that the increase in per capita public welfare expenses ranged from 0.4% to 24.1%, and the average increase in the ratio of public welfare expenses to total expenditure ranged from -2.3% to 4.1%. In all cases, we test the robustness of the model using a leave-one-out reestimation of nonintervention individuals with weights and find that our model itself is robust. The impact of the transition to the core city on municipal finances varies depending on the characteristics of the municipality, the surrounding economic zone, and population trends, and a multifaceted evaluation is necessary when implementing financial resource measures