Beschreibung:
In this paper, I introduce two new treatments into learning-to-forecast experiments: an initial anchor and a limited information treatment. The initial anchor pins down the subjects’ initial expectations and makes cross-treatment results more comparable. In the limited information treatment, subjects can only observe the most recent market outcome. Surprisingly, price dynamics do not differ between full and limited information sessions. The evidence suggests that when making decisions, subjects abandon most information and only utilize a few recent observations. Moreover, subjects predominantly use just one heuristic to form expectations, regardless of the market’s feedback system (positive or negative)