Beschreibung:
The occurrence of extreme weather events and the ongoing promotion of carbon emission reduction present substantial challenges for China's electricity security situation. As a result, it is crucial to improve security risk perception skills, strengthen monitoring and evaluation of the electricity security situation, and put more emphasis on electricity supply-side reform and demand-side response management. Firstly, with the risk of the electricity energy chain as the main line of research, this paper identifies and screens the main control factors affecting the electricity security situation using the dynamic model averaging with time-varying parameters and factor augmented vector autoregression (DMA-TVP-FAVAR) model, and then constructs the China Electricity Security Index (CESI), and then analyzes the CESI's transmission mechanism. Furthermore, the research examines the transmission mechanisms of CESI through economic and environmental channels under varying fluctuation regimes. It has been found that China's electricity security exhibits some periodicity in its dynamic evolution trend. Contradictions such as the acceleration of electricity structure transformation, the unpredictability of renewable electricity generation supply, and the imbalance of electricity resources among regions have become increasingly significant factors influencing the electricity security situation in China. Price-based monetary policy performs better than quantity-based policy in the electricity market, and carbon emissions and investment in carbon emissions control will increase dramatically if the electricity security situation is improved