Protest and repression dynamics in disastrous times

Medientyp: E-Book; Hochschulschrift

Titel: Protest and repression dynamics in disastrous times

Beteiligte: Jansesberger, Viktoria Anna [Verfasser:in]

Körperschaft: Universität Konstanz

Erschienen: Konstanz, 2023

Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (150 Seiten); Illustrationen, Diagramme

Sprache: Englisch

Identifikator:

Schlagwörter: Hochschulschrift

Entstehung:

Hochschulschrift: Dissertation, Universität Konstanz, 2024

Anmerkungen:

Beschreibung: The increasing frequency and intensity of climate change-related extreme weather events in various global regions pose significant challenges to the affected societies. This is particularly true for less resilient and vulnerable populations, for whom extreme weather conditions often result in catastrophe. Numerous recent examples illustrate that the challenging periods following sudden weather disasters, such as storms, floods, and landslides, often lead to disruptive political incidents, including citizen protests against government actions or, conversely, state repression against citizens. However, this is only the case under specific conditions. This dissertation aims to enhance our understanding of the contextual factors that make protests and repression more likely to occur after disastrous weather events and to explain this relationship. The central argument of this work posits that the magnitude of grievances following sudden weather disasters is not the sole determinant of protests occurring. Profound grievances do not necessarily translate into protests unless the opportunity to effectively mobilize emerges. The degree to which mobilization is viable depends on various factors, such as the political system, characteristics of different societal groups and geographical regions, and major political developments and events. Research paper 1, conducted in collaboration with Gabriele Spilker, explores why and how autocratic systems often exert increased repression following weather disasters, which limits political mobilization opportunities for protests. Governments feeling threatened by the chaos and societal discontent often following destructive weather events may resort to repression to prevent unrest before it materializes or may clamp down on unrest after it has already emerged. The paper employs a quantitative analysis of monthly data on the use of repression measures in autocracies in Africa and Latin America from 1990 to 2017. The findings indicate an increase in government-initiated repressive actions in sub-national regions in the months following weather disasters, which were primarily aimed at preventing unrest rather than suppressing existing disturbances. Research paper 2 investigates the sub-national regions of autocracies in which anti-government protests are likely to occur after weather disasters despite government repression. It argues that regions inhabited by marginalized ethnic groups may be more likely to hold protests. These groups often bear the brunt of catastrophic weather events due to government neglect but also have advantages in terms of their mobilization potential. The cohesion and trust within these groups, driven by shared histories and frequent interaction, are often stronger. Furthermore, the existing structures that these groups have relied upon often facilitate collective action. This hypothesis was tested and empirically supported by quantitative analyses of monthly protest data in 48 autocracies from 2003 to 2019: anti-government protests in the months following catastrophic storms, floods, or landslides were significantly more likely to occur in sub-national regions where marginalized ethnic groups lived than they were to occur in regions where no marginalized groups resided. Research paper 3 shifts the focus from autocracies—contexts where successful protest mobilization is made more difficult by the increased risk of political repression—to urban areas in the world's largest democracy, India. Metropolises in India, a state in the Global South, are both geographically and politically places where protest mobilization would be expected to occur more frequently should dissatisfaction arise. However, cities in the Global South are often highly exposed to the negative consequences of sudden weather catastrophes but do not always experience protests. Research paper 3 argues that temporary variations in mobilization opportunities play a crucial role in determining whether protests occur after destructive weather events. Research paper 3 examines the hypothesis that sudden weather catastrophes are more likely to lead to anti-government protests in the months preceding elections. Opposition politicians have a strong incentive to highlight inadequate governmental disaster management during this period and organize protests against it to position themselves as the better political alternative, thereby enhancing their chances in an upcoming election. Furthermore, citizens may be more willing to participate in protests shortly before elections to draw attention to the issues triggered by the weather catastrophe. Politicians concerned about election results would pay more attention to the wishes and complaints of their voters and adjust their behavior accordingly. This paper draws on a unique self-compiled dataset of protest events in 19 Indian metropolises that occurred between 2000 and 2019. The quantitative analyses of monthly protest dynamics in these cities support the theoretical argument. The likelihood of protests after sudden weather catastrophes is particularly high before state-level elections. As states in India share the bulk of responsibility for disaster management, this finding is plausible and consistent with the theoretical argument. In summary, this dissertation demonstrates that weather catastrophes not only play a role in armed conflicts, a major focus of previous research, but also, under specific circumstances, increase the likelihood of repression and protests. The findings indicate that in autocracies, weather disasters can induce governments to initiate repression, significantly impeding protest mobilization. Additionally, this dissertation contributes valuable insights into the importance of considering variation in mobilization structures to understand when and where sudden weather events trigger anti-government protests.

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