• Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: Evaluating approximate point forecasting of count processes
  • Beteiligte: Homburg, Annika [Verfasser:in]; Weiß, Christian H. [Verfasser:in]; Alwan, Layth C. [Verfasser:in]; Frahm, Gabriel [Verfasser:in]; Göb, Rainer [Verfasser:in]
  • Erschienen: Würzburg University: Online Publication Service, 2019
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics7030030
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  • Beschreibung: In forecasting count processes, practitioners often ignore the discreteness of counts and compute forecasts based on Gaussian approximations instead. For both central and non-central point forecasts, and for various types of count processes, the performance of such approximate point forecasts is analyzed. The considered data-generating processes include different autoregressive schemes with varying model orders, count models with overdispersion or zero inflation, counts with a bounded range, and counts exhibiting trend or seasonality. We conclude that Gaussian forecast approximations should be avoided.
  • Zugangsstatus: Freier Zugang