• Medientyp: Bericht; E-Book
  • Titel: Energy supply shocks' nonlinearities on output and prices
  • Beteiligte: De Santis, Roberto A. [VerfasserIn]; Tornese, Tommaso [VerfasserIn]
  • Erschienen: Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB), 2023
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.2866/610849
  • ISBN: 978-92-899-6119-6
  • Schlagwörter: energy shocks ; narrative identification ; Business cycles ; C32 ; non-linearities ; TVAR ; E32
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  • Beschreibung: We use a Bayesian Threshold Vector Autoregression model identified through sign and narrative restrictions to uncover non-linearities in the propagation of energy supply shocks. We find that the transmission of energy supply shocks on consumer prices is stronger in high-inflation regimes, supporting nonlinear models. The faster pass-thorough of energy supply shocks to consumer prices (excl. energy) cushions the drop in output in the short term. Energy supply shocks have a stronger impact on output in the medium-term with manufacturing being more adversely affected than GDP. Large energy supply shocks shift the economy to another state but after two and half years the mean-reversion to lower inflation implies a more moderate transmission mechanism, highlighting the importance of state-dependent impulse responses. The energy supply shocks between July 2021 and June 2022 are massive amounting to 3.9 standard deviations on average each month.
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