• Medientyp: Bericht; E-Book
  • Titel: Faraway, so close: the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on political violence in Asian countries
  • Beteiligte: Di Maio, Michele [Verfasser:in]; Justino, Patricia [Verfasser:in]; Sciabolazza, Valerio Leone [Verfasser:in]; Nardi, Cecilia [Verfasser:in]
  • Erschienen: Helsinki: The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), 2024
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2024/488-5
  • ISBN: 978-92-9267-488-5
  • Schlagwörter: agricultural trade ; Q54 ; Q17 ; agricultural suitability ; commodity prices ; Russia-Ukraine war ; F14 ; F13 ; rapacity effect
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  • Beschreibung: We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more suitable to produce that crop. We interpret this evidence as consistent with a rapacity effect being at play: the higher value of agricultural output increases the incentive to violently appropriate it. Our result is robust to a number of falsification and robustness tests. The effect is heterogeneous across countries and cell types: in line with our interpretation of the empirical findings, the effect is larger in countries that are net exporters of wheat and in cells that are rural. We also show that a higher price of wheat increases political violence more in countries that are low-income, fragile, and characterized by the presence of anti-government or terrorist groups, indicating that a higher value of crop production is more likely to fuel violence in areas that are poor or not politically stable.
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