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A folklore conjecture in quantum computing is that the acceptance probability of a quantum query algorithm can be approximated by a classical decision tree, with only a polynomial increase in the number of queries. Motivated by this conjecture, Aaronson and Ambainis (Theory of Computing, 2014) conjectured that this should hold more generally for any bounded function computed by a low degree polynomial. In this work we prove two new results towards establishing this conjecture: first, that any such polynomial has a small fractional certificate complexity; and second, that many inputs have a small sensitive block. We show that these would imply the Aaronson and Ambainis conjecture, assuming a conjectured extension of Talagrand’s concentration inequality. On the technical side, many classical techniques used in the analysis of Boolean functions seem to fail when applied to bounded functions. Here, we develop a new technique, based on a mix of combinatorics, analysis and geometry, and which in part extends a recent technique of Knop et al. (STOC 2021) to bounded functions.