Beschreibung:
<jats:p>The purpose of this paper is to present a method for the probabilistic economic dispatch problem between the grid and a hybrid-microgrid. The probabilistic economic dispatch problem is solved for reducing the fossil fuel usage and the total cost of electricity consumption. A scenario tree method based on day-ahead load and wind power forecasting errors is proposed to solve the probabilistic dispatch problem. A hybrid-microgrid, comprising a wind turbine, two diesel generators, and an energy storage system, has been used to analyze the proposed method. Utilizing a multi-price electricity tariff has been shown as the advantage of the energy storage system and the energy arbitrage. A new form of formulation for power and energy arbitrage equations and economic benefits of energy arbitrage is provided. The probabilistic power generation costs of the grid are calculated. With simulation results and comparison of different strategies in the proposed hybrid-Microgrid model illustrated the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach using MATLAB. By using energy arbitrage formulation in the probabilistic economic dispatch, the day-ahead probabilistic active power of the grid is calculated and depicted in a new way. The proposed method in many micro-grids, including probabilistic power generators, can be used to reduce the cost of exploiting distribution networks.</jats:p>