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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation
Beteiligte:
Jongman, Brenden;
Winsemius, Hessel C.;
Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.;
Coughlan de Perez, Erin;
van Aalst, Maarten K.;
Kron, Wolfgang;
Ward, Philip J.
Erschienen:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015
Erschienen in:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112 (2015) 18
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1073/pnas.1414439112
ISSN:
0027-8424;
1091-6490
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
Significance Understanding the vulnerability of societies around the world is crucial for understanding historical trends in flood risk and for producing accurate projections of fatalities and losses. We reproduced historical river flood occurrence using daily climate data for the period 1980–2010 and quantified the natural and socioeconomic contributions to flood risk trends. We show that the fatalities and losses as a share of the exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Projections based on a wide range of climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios demonstrate that amplified adaptation efforts have the potential to largely contain losses from future floods.