Beschreibung:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title>
<jats:sec>
<jats:title>Background</jats:title>
<jats:p>We analytically characterized the past, present, and future levels and trends of the national herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) epidemic in the United States.</jats:p>
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<jats:title>Methods</jats:title>
<jats:p>A population-level mathematical model was constructed to describe HSV-2 transmission dynamics and was fitted to the data series of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.</jats:p>
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<jats:title>Results</jats:title>
<jats:p>Over 1950–2050, antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) increased rapidly from 1960, peaking at 19.9% in 1983 in those aged 15–49 years, before reversing course to decline to 13.2% by 2020 and 8.5% by 2050. Incidence rate peaked in 1971 at 11.9 per 1000 person-years, before declining by 59% by 2020 and 70% by 2050. Annual number of new infections peaked at 1 033 000 in 1978, before declining to 667 000 by 2020 and 600 000 by 2050. Women were disproportionately affected, averaging 75% higher seroprevalence, 95% higher incidence rate, and 71% higher annual number of infections. In 2020, 78% of infections were acquired by those 15–34 years of age.</jats:p>
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<jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title>
<jats:p>The epidemic has undergone a major transition over a century, with the greatest impact in those 15–34 years of age. In addition to 47 million prevalent infections in 2020, high incidence will persist over the next 3 decades, adding &gt;600 000 new infections every year.</jats:p>
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