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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
Ducking the collection of costly evidence: Motivated use of statistical heuristics
Beteiligte:
Sanitioso, Rasyid;
Kunda, Ziva
Erschienen:
Wiley, 1991
Erschienen in:
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4 (1991) 3, Seite 161-176
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1002/bdm.3960040302
ISSN:
0894-3257;
1099-0771
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
AbstractWe examined whether motivation affects people's use of statistical heuristics. In two studies, subjects had to decide how many instances to observe before making predictions. Half the subjects were led to believe that the observation of each instance would be relatively high in cost, and half were led to believe that it would be relatively low in cost. In both studies, only subjects for whom evidence collection was relatively high in cost accessed the aggregation principle and came to believe that aggregates afforded greater predictability than did single instances. Their belief that predictability increases sharply with sample size may have allowed these subjects to conclude what they wanted to conclude, namely that smaller samples would suffice for their predictions.