Beschreibung:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Multinomial models can be difficult to use when constraints are placed on the probabilities. An exact model checking procedure for such models is developed based on a uniform prior on the full multinomial model. For inference, a nonuniform prior can be used and a consistency theorem is proved concerning a check for prior-data conflict with the chosen prior. Applications are presented and a new elicitation methodology is developed for multinomial models with ordered probabilities.
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