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MATTHEWS, L.; McKENDRICK, I. J.; TERNENT, H.; GUNN, G. J.; SYNGE, B.; WOOLHOUSE, M. E. J.

Super-shedding cattle and the transmission dynamics ofEscherichia coliO157

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  • Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: Super-shedding cattle and the transmission dynamics ofEscherichia coliO157
  • Beteiligte: MATTHEWS, L.; McKENDRICK, I. J.; TERNENT, H.; GUNN, G. J.; SYNGE, B.; WOOLHOUSE, M. E. J.
  • Erschienen: Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2006
  • Erschienen in: Epidemiology and Infection
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.1017/s0950268805004590
  • ISSN: 0950-2688; 1469-4409
  • Entstehung:
  • Anmerkungen:
  • Beschreibung: <jats:title>SUMMARY</jats:title><jats:p>The prevalence of<jats:italic>Escherichia coli</jats:italic>O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of<jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic>O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, ∼2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90–100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of<jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic>O157 infection – parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest – the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.</jats:p>
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