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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation
Beteiligte:
Hasenzagl, Thomas;
Pellegrino, Filippo;
Reichlin, Lucrezia;
Ricco, Giovanni
Erschienen:
MIT Press - Journals, 2022
Erschienen in:
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104 (2022) 4, Seite 686-704
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1162/rest_a_00974
ISSN:
0034-6535;
1530-9142
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
Abstract We develop a medium-size semistructural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view, often expressed by central banks, that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a Phillips curve, and temporary fluctuations in energy prices. We find that a stable long-term inflation trend and a well-identified steep Phillips curve are consistent with the data, but they imply potential output declining since the new millennium and energy prices affecting headline inflation not only via the Phillips curve but also via an independent expectational channel.