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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections : A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results
:
A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results
Beteiligte:
Prechter, Robert R.;
Goel, Deepak;
Parker, Wayne D.;
Lampert, Matthew
Erschienen:
SAGE Publications, 2012
Erschienen in:
SAGE Open, 2 (2012) 4, Seite 215824401245919
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1177/2158244012459194
ISSN:
2158-2440
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for reelection. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (a) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of reelection outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment; and (b) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.