Beschreibung:
<jats:p>This study uses a dynamic multi‐regional <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">C</jats:styled-content>omputable <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">G</jats:styled-content>eneral <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">E</jats:styled-content>quilibrium model of the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">A</jats:styled-content>ustralian economy to examine the impacts of developing irrigated agriculture in remote <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">N</jats:styled-content>orth <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">W</jats:styled-content>est <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">Q</jats:styled-content>ueensland. A potential investment and operational scenario is implemented using three alternative forecast baselines. In the first run using a business‐as‐usual baseline, there is a welfare loss from irrigation development, even with an optimistic shift in farm productivity and factor endowments in <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">N</jats:styled-content>orth <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">W</jats:styled-content>est <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">Q</jats:styled-content>ueensland. In the second run, baseline demand for <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">A</jats:styled-content>ustralia's exports is assumed to grow at a faster rate and there is a small welfare gain. Simulating climate change impacts on crop yields, the forecast baseline of the third run includes a gradual reduction in farmland productivity in southern <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">A</jats:styled-content>ustralia. The simulations show the impacts of both supply and demand shifts on the welfare outcome, but on balance, clear welfare gains do not arise from the potential irrigation development.</jats:p>