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Anderson, Kym; Wittwer, Glyn

Cumulative effects of Brexit and other UK and EU‐27 bilateral free‐trade agreements on the world’s wine markets

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  • Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: Cumulative effects of Brexit and other UK and EU‐27 bilateral free‐trade agreements on the world’s wine markets
  • Beteiligte: Anderson, Kym; Wittwer, Glyn
  • Erschienen: Wiley, 2018
  • Erschienen in: The World Economy
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.1111/twec.12726
  • ISSN: 0378-5920; 1467-9701
  • Entstehung:
  • Anmerkungen:
  • Beschreibung: <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Since Britain accounts for a major share of the world’s wine imports, and <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EU</jats:styled-content> member countries include the world’s major wine exporters, Brexit and subsequent <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">UK</jats:styled-content> and <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EU</jats:styled-content>‐27 bilateral free‐trade agreements (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content>s) have the potential to disrupt wine markets globally. We use a model of the world’s national wine markets, projected to 2025, to examine potential impacts of Brexit and a series of follow‐on bilateral <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content>s. The scenarios assume a <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">UK</jats:styled-content>‐<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EU</jats:styled-content>‐27 <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content> is followed by <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EU</jats:styled-content>‐27 bilateral <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content>s with Australia and New Zealand and then <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">UK</jats:styled-content> bilateral <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content>s with those two plus South Africa and Chile (with whom the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EU</jats:styled-content> already has <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content>s). The new <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">EU</jats:styled-content>‐Japan <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content> is also assessed. Brexit’s impact comes more from assumed changes to the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">UK</jats:styled-content>’s income growth and the pound’s exchange rate than to its tariffs. The bilateral trade consequences of the trade‐diverting and trade‐creating effects of each additional <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content> are highlighted. They are then compared with the effects of a multilateral agreement to remove all wine import tariffs globally. Unrealistic though this is, it exposes the far bigger benefits to wine producers and consumers that could emerge from a single multilateral undertaking than from several bilateral or regional <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">FTA</jats:styled-content>s.</jats:p>