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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
Whither Presidential Approval?
Beteiligte:
Small, Raphael;
Eisinger, Robert M.
Erschienen:
Wiley, 2020
Erschienen in:
Presidential Studies Quarterly, 50 (2020) 4, Seite 845-863
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1111/psq.12680
ISSN:
0360-4918;
1741-5705
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
AbstractUntil recently, presidential job approval has been positively correlated with a healthy economy. Despite pre‐COVID‐19 sanguine macroeconomic indicators, President Donald Trump's job approval numbers appear to be quite low relative to those of his predecessors. Using a Bayesian model to infer latent presidential approval, we regress approval on consumer sentiment, finding strong evidence of a structural break commencing with the inauguration of President Barack Obama. We also find that the positive associations between presidential approval and consumer sentiment have weakened. Finally, we posit that a polarized political landscape may contribute to the changing of the meaning of presidential approval, which now appears to be a proxy for partisanship.