Sie können Bookmarks mittels Listen verwalten, loggen Sie sich dafür bitte in Ihr SLUB Benutzerkonto ein.
Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis
Beteiligte:
García-Schmidt, Mariana;
Woodford, Michael
Erschienen:
American Economic Association, 2019
Erschienen in:American Economic Review
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.1257/aer.20170110
ISSN:
0002-8282
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
<jats:p> We argue that an influential neo-Fisherian analysis of the effects of low interest rates depends on using perfect-foresight equilibrium analysis under circumstances where it is not plausible for people to hold expectations of that kind. We propose an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Perfect foresight is justified by our analysis as a reasonable approximation in some cases, but in the case of a commitment to maintain a low nominal interest rate for a long time, our reflective equilibrium implies neither neo-Fisherian conclusions nor implausibly strong predicted effects of forward guidance. (JEL D84, E12, E31, E43, E52) </jats:p>