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Ojal, John; Brand, Samuel P. C.; Were, Vincent; Okiro, Emelda A.; Kombe, Ivy K.; Mburu, Caroline; Aziza, Rabia; Ogero, Morris; Agweyu, Ambrose; Warimwe, George M.; Uyoga, Sophie; Adetifa, Ifedayo M. O.; Scott, J. Anthony G.; Otieno, Edward; Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I.; Agoti, Charles N.; Kasera, Kadondi; Amoth, Patrick; Mwangangi, Mercy; Aman, Rashid; Ng’ang’a, Wangari; Tsofa, Benjamin; Bejon, Philip; Barasa, Edwine; [...]

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

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  • Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data
  • Beteiligte: Ojal, John; Brand, Samuel P. C.; Were, Vincent; Okiro, Emelda A.; Kombe, Ivy K.; Mburu, Caroline; Aziza, Rabia; Ogero, Morris; Agweyu, Ambrose; Warimwe, George M.; Uyoga, Sophie; Adetifa, Ifedayo M. O.; Scott, J. Anthony G.; Otieno, Edward; Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I.; Agoti, Charles N.; Kasera, Kadondi; Amoth, Patrick; Mwangangi, Mercy; Aman, Rashid; Ng’ang’a, Wangari; Tsofa, Benjamin; Bejon, Philip; Barasa, Edwine; [...]
  • Erschienen: F1000 Research Ltd, 2021
  • Erschienen in: Wellcome Open Research, 6 (2021), Seite 127
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.1
  • ISSN: 2398-502X
  • Entstehung:
  • Anmerkungen:
  • Beschreibung: Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.
  • Zugangsstatus: Freier Zugang