• Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: The Elusive Determinants of Civil Wars
  • Beteiligte: Janus, Thorsten
  • Erschienen: Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2019
  • Erschienen in: Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 25 (2019) 3
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.1515/peps-2019-0006
  • ISSN: 1554-8597; 1079-2457
  • Entstehung:
  • Anmerkungen:
  • Beschreibung: AbstractLike the empirical growth literature, the empirical civil war literature has identified few robust determinants. In this paper, I show that the lack of robust estimates is consistent with rational, forward-looking behavior in a simple dynamic conflict model with asymmetric information. The main result is most of the conflict determinants, such as income per capita, inequality, and natural resource revenues, have ambiguous effects on the conflict risk. The ambiguities largely reflect that, when the parameters change, agents re-optimize.