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Medientyp:
E-Artikel
Titel:
Prediction of Vehicle Ownership Growth Using Gompertz Model, Case Study of Hungary
Beteiligte:
Torok, Adam
Erschienen:
Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2022
Erschienen in:
System Safety: Human - Technical Facility - Environment, 4 (2022) 1, Seite 164-169
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.2478/czoto-2022-0017
ISSN:
2657-5450
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
Abstract Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. Therefore, this research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data based on projected per capita GDP. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts passenger cars market penetration rate, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be easily modified based on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and progress in knowledge of the studied market.