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McFarland, Sarah E; Marcus, Ulrich; Hemmers, Lukas; Miura, Fuminari; Iñigo Martínez, Jesús; Martínez, Fernando Martín; Montalbán, Elisa Gil; Chazelle, Emilie; Mailles, Alexandra; Silue, Yassoungo; Hammami, Naïma; Lecompte, Amaryl; Ledent, Nicolas; Vanden Berghe, Wim; Liesenborghs, Laurens; Van den Bossche, Dorien; Cleary, Paul R; Wallinga, Jacco; Robinson, Eve P; Johansen, Tone Bjordal; Bormane, Antra; Melillo, Tanya; Seidl, Cornelia; Coyer, Liza; [...]

Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022

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  • Medientyp: E-Artikel
  • Titel: Estimated incubation period distributions of mpox using cases from two international European festivals and outbreaks in a club in Berlin, May to June 2022
  • Beteiligte: McFarland, Sarah E; Marcus, Ulrich; Hemmers, Lukas; Miura, Fuminari; Iñigo Martínez, Jesús; Martínez, Fernando Martín; Montalbán, Elisa Gil; Chazelle, Emilie; Mailles, Alexandra; Silue, Yassoungo; Hammami, Naïma; Lecompte, Amaryl; Ledent, Nicolas; Vanden Berghe, Wim; Liesenborghs, Laurens; Van den Bossche, Dorien; Cleary, Paul R; Wallinga, Jacco; Robinson, Eve P; Johansen, Tone Bjordal; Bormane, Antra; Melillo, Tanya; Seidl, Cornelia; Coyer, Liza; [...]
  • Erschienen: European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC), 2023
  • Erschienen in: Eurosurveillance
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2023.28.27.2200806
  • ISSN: 1560-7917
  • Schlagwörter: Virology ; Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health ; Epidemiology
  • Entstehung:
  • Anmerkungen:
  • Beschreibung: <jats:sec> <jats:title>Background</jats:title> <jats:p>Since May 2022, an mpox outbreak affecting primarily men who have sex with men (MSM) has occurred in numerous non-endemic countries worldwide. As MSM frequently reported multiple sexual encounters in this outbreak, reliably determining the time of infection is difficult; consequently, estimation of the incubation period is challenging.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Aim</jats:title> <jats:p>We aimed to provide valid and precise estimates of the incubation period distribution of mpox by using cases associated with early outbreak settings where infection likely occurred.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Methods</jats:title> <jats:p>Colleagues in European countries were invited to provide information on exposure intervals and date of symptom onset for mpox cases who attended a fetish festival in Antwerp, Belgium, a gay pride festival in Gran Canaria, Spain or a particular club in Berlin, Germany, where early mpox outbreaks occurred. Cases of these outbreaks were pooled; doubly censored models using the log-normal, Weibull and Gamma distributions were fitted to estimate the incubation period distribution.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Results</jats:title> <jats:p>We included data on 122 laboratory-confirmed cases from 10 European countries. Depending on the distribution used, the median incubation period ranged between 8 and 9 days, with 5th and 95th percentiles ranging from 2 to 3 and from 20 to 23 days, respectively. The shortest interval that included 50% of incubation periods spanned 8 days (4–11 days).</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title> <jats:p>Current public health management of close contacts should consider that in approximately 5% of cases, the incubation period exceeds the commonly used monitoring period of 21 days.</jats:p> </jats:sec>
  • Zugangsstatus: Freier Zugang