Beschreibung:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The present and future ice conditions around 100 years from present in the Baltic Sea are examined by two 10 year integrations of an ice-ocean model. Results from atmospheric climate-model simulations constitute the atmospheric forcing, one representing present climate conditions (control simulation), and the other global warming due to CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> doubling (scenario simulation). The present-day climatological ice conditions and the interannual variability were realistically reproduced by the ice-ocean model. The modelled range of the maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic was 190−420 × 10<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>km<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> in the control simulation and 50−270 × 10<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>km<jats:sup>2</jats:sup> in the scenario simulation. The range of the annual maximum level-ice thickness was 45−85 and 20−58 cm in the control and scenario simulations, respectively.</jats:p>