Optimal Sizing Grid-Connected Hybrid PV/Generator/Battery Systems Following the Prediction of CO2 Emission and Electricity Consumption by Machine Learning Methods (MLP and SVR): Aseer, Tabuk, and Eastern Region, Saudi Arabia
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E-Artikel
Titel:
Optimal Sizing Grid-Connected Hybrid PV/Generator/Battery Systems Following the Prediction of CO2 Emission and Electricity Consumption by Machine Learning Methods (MLP and SVR): Aseer, Tabuk, and Eastern Region, Saudi Arabia
Beschreibung:
<jats:p>Researchers’ concentration has been on hybrid systems that can fulfill economic and environmental goals in recent years. In this study, first, the prediction of CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission and electricity consumption of Saudi Arabia by 2040 is made by employing multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and support vector regression (SVR) methods to see the rate of CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission and electricity consumption. In this regard, the most important parameters such as gross domestic product (GDP), population, oil consumption, natural gas consumption, and renewable consumption are considered. Estimating CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission by MLP and electricity consumption by SVR showed 815 Mt/year and 475 TWh/year, respectively, where R2 for MLP and SVR was 0.99. Prediction results showed a 31% and 39% increase in CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission and electricity consumption by 2040 compared to 2020. Second, the optimum combination of components for supplying demand load and desalination load in residential usages are found where 0% capacity shortage, 20–60$/t penalty for CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission, sell back to the grid, and both fixed and random grid outages are considered. Load demands were considered under two winter and non-winter times so that 4,266, 2,346, and 3,300 kWh/day for Aseer, Tabuk, and the Eastern Region were shown, respectively. Results show that 0.12, 0.11, and 0.12 (kW (PV))/(kWh/day(load)) and 0.1, 0.08, and 0.08 (kW(Bat))/(kWh/day(load)) are required under the assumption of this study for Aseer, Tabuk, and the Eastern Region, respectively. Also, COEs for the proposed systems are 0.0934, 0.0915, and 0.0910 $/kWh for Aseer, Tabuk, and the Eastern Region, respectively. Also, it was found that renewable fractions (RFs) between 46% and 48% for all of the case studies could have rational COE and NPCs and fulfill the increasing rate of CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission and electricity consumption. Finally, sensitivity analysis on grid CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> emission and its penalty, load and solar Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), PV, and battery prices showed 45%–55%, 42%–52%, and 43%–49% RFs for Aseer, Tabuk, and the Eastern Region, respectively.</jats:p>