Beschreibung:
This article analyzes the risk factors influencing the achievement of solid waste sphere reforming goals in Russia. The given arguments present the current state of the reform as not very effective from an economic, environmental, and social perspective. The authors identify four groups of risk factors and put forward, as a critical condition for successful reform, the availability of reliable information, as well as risk management incorporated in the decision-making process. The basis for the research execution was the information from the regional solid waste sphere Master Plans and expert opinions on the readiness to achieve the reform goal regarding 100% MSW sorting based on the staff performance, public awareness, technology availability, and tariff validity assessments. The authors use a decision tree method and MSW sorting system development scenarios to provide the pessimistic and optimistic evaluation on the potential for fulfilling the reform tasks. The conclusions indicate the unattainability of the goals set by the Russian authorities for MSW sorting by 2030. The authors propose to change the status of risk factors through the implementation of certain measures for the transition from a negative to a positive scenario of reforming and to set the realistic goals for MSW sorting in Russia.