Erschienen in:
Earth System Dynamics, 9 (2018) 1, Seite 119-134
Sprache:
Englisch
DOI:
10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
ISSN:
2190-4987
Entstehung:
Anmerkungen:
Beschreibung:
Abstract. The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is animportant issue. The West African population is expected to increasesignificantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-termclimate change is critical to the population and the decision makers taskedwith food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yieldschange in the near future? What influence will climate change have on cropfailures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorateundesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize,millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986–2005) and anear-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels toassess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Fourcrop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa inthe historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields areshown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability alsoincreases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of cropfailures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standarddeviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increasesthe frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of cropfailures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years formaize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwaterhave been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test.The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stressduring flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwaterharvesting.